As the Governorship/State assembly elections hold today, BODE GBADEBO writes on the possible factors that may throw up historic twists at the governorship poll in some states.
Lagos
For the past 16 years, Lagos State has been in the opposition; hence it has never been in the same bed with the government at the centre since 1999. But the decision of the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led state government under Governor Raji Fashola with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s guidance to have continuity in the party’s governorship candidate, Akinwumi Ambode, may boomerang.
Despite APC’s grip on Lagos, the last presidential election result surprised bookmakers given the not-too-much gap of 54% to 43% between the ruling APC in the state and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively.
But is there a threat to APC’s chances in today’s elections? If no, why will Oba of Lagos, HRH Rilwan Akiolu, curse that Igbos in Lagos would perish in the lagoon if they fail to support and vote for APC candidate?
“On Saturday, if anyone of you go against Ambode who I picked, that is your end. If it doesn’t happen within seven days, just know that I am a bastard and it is not my father who gave birth to me,” Akiolu reportedly warned.
However, the PDP candidate, Jimi Agbaje, is poised for a stiffer contest following the outcome of the March 28 presidential election that saw APC’s General Muhammadu Buhari emerging as president-elect.
Will the APC’s ‘change’ slogan work against it today? If yes, then PDP would have broken a jinx of 16 years in the very eyes of APC’s most influential leader, Tinubu, but only time will tell.
Kano
History is about to be made in Kano State. For example, in 2007, the then outgoing deputy governor of Zamfara State, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi, succeeded his boss in a rancor-free atmosphere unlike in Oyo State,
Where former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala supported his boss’ impeachment before paving way for himself to take over in the following election.
This time in Kano State, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s two-time deputy, Abdullahi Ganduje, is set to succeed him having emerged as APC’s governorship candidate. But he will have to cross a big hurdle of the PDP candidate, Salihu Sagir Takai, who is not a pushover in today’s poll.
Oyo
In the Pacesetter State, the popular belief is that no one can govern the state twice. It happened in Bola Ige’s time in the Second Republic. Other past elected governors of the state were equally denied second terms.
Former Governor Rasheed Ladoja was pushed out by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2007 and Alao-Akala was defeated by the incumbent Governor, Abiola Ajimobi in 2011. All of them are now back in today’s contest.
Can Governor Ajimobi break the jinx or will he be consumed by a widely-held belief of the people? Whichever way it goes, Ajimobi, Ladoja and Alao-Akala will be coming back for the second time except if the PDP governorship candidate, Teslim Folarin, wins the election.
Katsina
Katsina electorate have always voted for the PDP for the past 16 years at the governorship level. But the President-elect, General Buhari, of the APC hails from Katsina State.
So, will the incoming President’s home state deviate from the norm and have an opposition governor in PDP or will the people prefer a ruling party and vote for the APC governorship candidate, Rt Hon. Aminu Masari?
Whichever way it goes, it is not new as former president Obasanjo was initially rejected by his Ogun State people in 1999 before he eventually won their hearts in 2003 and 2007, before losing it to the opposition again in 2011.
Rivers
It will be a titanic battle in Rivers State between the PDP governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, supported by the First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan and APC governorship candidate, Dakuku Peterside, supported by the state governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
Initially, Wike looked set to take over the leadership of the oil-rich state from his estranged boss, Amaechi, but with the victory of the APC at the presidential election and Amaechi’s potential political prospects, the permutations have changed.
LEADERSHIP recalls that Rivers State is the first in the geo-political zone to have gone the way of the opposition since 1999.
Therefore, if Amaechi eventually delivers the state to the APC, then it will be the first and only South-South state with a governor elected on a platform other than the PDP.
Interestingly, it might return to the mainstream politics from May 29 while the remaining five sister states in the zone will be forced to the opposition for the first time.
Sokoto
The contest in the Seat of Caliphate will pitch APC candidate and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, against his in-law and former boss, Senator Abdullah Wali.
Interestingly, before Tambuwal’s election into the House in 2003, he had learnt the legislative ropes from 1999 to 2003 while working as Personal Assistant on Legislative Affairs to Senator Wali, who was at that time the Senate Leader.
The question on the lips of many is whether what happened at the National Assembly election nearly two weeks ago in Kaduna State, where a former commissioner defeated his former governor-boss, will repeat itself in Sokoto governorship election. But time will tell in this case too as anything can happen in the circumstance.
Benue
Given the recent victory of APC in the state at the March 28 presidential poll and the popularity of its governorship candidate, Samuel Ortom, in today’s election, Benue people might be bidding goodbye to the PDP, the only party they have known in the last 16 years.
But come this Saturday, can Governor Gabriel Suswam stop the tide of change sweeping the North even when he couldn’t save himself from senatorial election defeat? Only time will tell.
Taraba
APC governorship candidate in the state, Senator Aisha Al-Hassan, is a woman and an uncommon governorship choice for that matter. She will slug it out with two men: PDP’s Ach. Darius Ishaku and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, David Sabo Kente, all from the southern part of Taraba State.
While Ishaku looks easily set to carry the day, it is however feared that Ishaku and Kente may share their votes thereby giving Al-Hassan an edge at the poll and if that happens, APC will record an unprecedented victory in the country and – the party’s candidate will be the first elected female governor in Nigeria’s political history.
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